Shift Right  ·  Module i of vi Mark Boyer
i · DEMAND & FLOW

The Demand & Flow Reality

Before you design anything, find out what your demand actually is and how badly it flows. Three numbers, and none of them are in your service report.

Question one

Should this contact exist?

Value demand, or failure demand you created earlier.

Question two

How much of the time is it moving?

Touch time against elapsed time. Flow, not activity.

Question three

Where should the work sit?

The four modes, allocated by evidence rather than habit.

Saved locally · never leaves this machine

Map a real month, not a tidy one

List demand in the words your customers actually use, not your ticket categories. Translating demand into internal categories is how organisations lose the ability to see it. Then answer the three questions above for each line.

Before you start

What you need, and what you will leave with

Time

An honest hour. Longer if the room argues, which is a good sign.

Have to hand

A month of real demand: a ticket export, a call log, or the twenty things people ask for most.

In the room

Someone who works the queue, and someone who can change a policy. Not only the person who owns the report.

You will leave with

Three numbers your board has never seen, and the first three sections of your operating model.

Learn the lens Failure demand, flow efficiency, and the arithmetic of queues

Failure demand is demand caused by a failure to do something, or to do it right, for the customer. Value demand is what you actually exist to handle. John Seddon named the distinction in 1989: the point is not to handle failure demand faster, it is to stop causing it. In your world it usually looks like chasing an update, reporting the same fault twice, or asking for something that should never have needed asking.

Calibration, honestly. Vanguard reports 40 to 60 per cent of demand in conventional service organisations is failure demand, higher in some sectors. That is consulting observation, not published research: an independent study of Gloucestershire Constabulary found 32 per cent, and academic work questions how reliably it can be recorded at all. There is no published failure-demand figure for IT service desks anywhere. Your number is genuinely new information.

Flow efficiency is the share of elapsed time that work is actually being worked on. Touch time divided by lead time. Most service and knowledge work runs between 1 and 10 per cent. It is the one number that reliably stops an executive conversation, because every other metric you report, tickets per head, cost per ticket, utilisation, first-line resolution, measures how busy the resource is, and none of them can see how long the work waits.

Calibration. Michael George: "most processes, whether in service, business, transactional, or product development, run at cycle efficiencies of less than 10%". Karen Martin reports current-state activity ratios of 1 to 10 per cent in office and service value streams. Both are practitioner observation across many engagements, not a controlled dataset. Treat 25 to 50 per cent as the credible ceiling, depending on how cognitive the work is.

Little's Law says average lead time equals work in progress divided by throughput. It holds regardless of how work arrives, how long it takes, or what order you do it in. The only requirement is a stable system. So if a queue holds 240 open items and closes 48 a day, average lead time is five days, arithmetically. Not because anyone is slow. You cannot exhort your way out of it: you reduce work in progress, or you raise throughput at the constraint.

Kingman's formula explains why the last few points of utilisation cost so much. The utilisation term is hyperbolic, not linear: at 50 per cent it contributes 1, at 80 per cent it contributes 4, at 90 per cent 9, at 95 per cent 19. Going from 80 to 90 per cent roughly doubles the wait. And utilisation multiplies with variability rather than adding to it, so high utilisation is survivable with steady demand, and catastrophic with spiky demand. The practical consequence is uncomfortable: a contract that prices for ninety per cent utilisation and promises tight response times is internally contradictory.

Kingman's formula is an approximation and its arithmetic should not be presented to a customer as a prediction. Use the shape of the curve, not the number it produces.

Where your demand comes from, and where it should sit

Volume flowing from cause, through type, into the four modes

Failure demand

Contacts that exist because the service failed someone earlier
0%

Flow efficiency

Share of elapsed time the work is actually being worked on
·
touchingwaiting
Bulk entry

Paste it in rather than typing it

Two columns from a ticket export or a spreadsheet: what the demand is, then how many a month. Tab or comma separated, one per line. Optionally add touch minutes and elapsed hours as a third and fourth column. Chase an update  420  4  26

Your demand, in the customer's words

Record what they say, not what your categories call it
Demand Vol / mo Type Share

Touch time against elapsed time

Touch = minutes of actual work · Elapsed = hours from raised to resolved
Demand Vol / mo Touch (min) Elapsed (hrs) Flow eff. Waiting

Leave a row blank if you do not know it. A question mark is more useful than an average.

Score the moment, allocate the mode

1 to 5 · the model places each line in a mode
Demand Stakes Emotion Judgement Variability Data vis Handled today Mode
Used once, to turn misplaced volume into hours and roles returned.
£ People, tools and overhead divided by contacts. A rough figure beats a blank.

The arithmetic of your queue

Little's Law and the utilisation curve
open items, right now
items closed per day
days, what you promise
% of capacity, be honest

When you print, switch off headers and footers in the print dialog, or your browser stamps a URL and a timestamp on every page.